AIRBRUSHED OUT?

Posted at 8:30 p.m. ET

There's an intriguing bit of speculation making the rounds in e-mails and political gossip, centering on this question:  Will Joe Biden make it through the entire campaign, or will he drop out and be replaced by Hillary Clinton in order to save Obama's campaign?

There is a precedent, but not an encouraging one:  In 1972, George McGovern named Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri as his running mate.  It later developed that Eagleton had undergone electroshock therapy for some mental condition.  He had to drop out of the race, replaced by R. Sargent Shriver, a member of the Kennedy family.  (He was married to Eunice, Jack Kennedy's sister.)  Shriver had been the first head of the Peace Corps.

McGovern/Shriver went on to lose in a landslide to the incumbent, Richard M. Nixon.

Could the replacement act be played out again?  Well, consider possible scenarios.  Biden could decide the issue for himself, call Obama and say, "Barack, I'm not doing you any good.  I'll walk the plank.  You need Hillary or you'll lose."

Or, Biden could be pressured into it.

Or, Biden could become conveniently ill.  "The pain, the pain." 

Each party has a quick-action mechanism for replacing a candidate.

So, how would it play?  Well, first, Hillary would have to agree, and she might not.  She might see it in her interest to let Obama go down the drain.  And Obama would have to agree, and he might not.  He hasn't shown himself to be a particularly big man.

But let's say, as this is sheer fun, that Hillary agrees to come in and "save" the world from Sarah Palin.  And Obama, to save himself, agrees.  Would the public accept it?  Would it actually save Obama?

I think the answer to both questions is "no."  First, unless Biden should suddenly pass on, and they'd have to prove it, it would be seen as beyond cynical.  The McCain people would have a field day picturing Obama as a man who blew his first major decision as Democratic nominee.  Obama would become just another scheming politician, which is an accurate description in any event.

Second, let's remember that Hillary has more barnacles than the Queen Mary.  She may have a base among the Democratic faithful, but she's not universally loved or admired.  Her presence, combined with the skepticism it would arouse, could drag the ticket down even further.

You can be sure that, if Obama starts sinking and someone suggests replacing Biden, extensive polling would be done first. 

I don't think it will happen.

But it would make terrific theater, almost as good as "24."

September 11, 2008.